How to Turn Around an NFL Franchise

After the Lions went 0-16 this year, it became fashionable for bloggers and mainstream internet writers to suggest a program for turning around struggling franchises. I have a suggestion of my own and it only requires two easy steps.

1) Interview Ravens' Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan for your head coaching vacancy.

2) Hire some other no-name coordinator instead.

It worked for the Dolphins (Tony Sparano, 1-15 to 11-5), Falcons (Mike Smith, 4-12 to 11-5) and Ravens (John Harbaugh, 5-11 to 11-5), and it could work for others.

Vikings Face Television Blackout

There are over 11,000 unsold tickets for this weekend's Eagles at Vikings Wild Card Game, meaning the game will likely not be seen on television in the Twin Cities market. It has been 11,681 days* since January 9, 1977, when the Vikings lost their fourth (and final) Super Bowl to the Raiders (SB XI).

This probably is not a coincidence.

*That's a stat you won't see anywhere else. Only my insanity would allow me to see a number like 11,000 and think "I bet it has been about that long since 1977".

Jeremy's Top 6 Sports Stories of 2008

So 2008 has come to a close. Sports Illustrated has proclaimed it to be the best sports year ever. I'm sure this is the source of major debates around various blogospheres and frankly I'm too tired from New Year's Eve to address that issue. So instead, I'll focus on my top-6 stories of 2008. And I promise that there will be nothing related to Federer-Nadal, Tiger's U.S. Open victory, Jimmie Johnson's Threepeat, or anything else in those sports that I couldn't really give a damn about...

One

Frenchmen +

Gutsy unexpected performance =

Champions

Jason Lezak's anchor leg of the U.S. men's 4x100 freestyle relay in Beijing is bar none the top sporting event of the year. I can still watch the NBC Olympics footage of this and get goosebumps. If not for this, we wouldn't have been able to watch for the next six nights and determine whether or not Michael Phelps' sisters were fortunate enough not to share the same facial genetics as their brother. It was made all the sweeter by the fact that Lezak beat the choking dog Frenchman Alain Bernard who had talked all sorts of smack about how the Americans were going to lose. And, hey, let us all add Jason Lezak to the extraordinary list of Jewish athletes (Shawn Green, Kevin Youkilis, Sage Rosenfels to name a few).

Two

Usain Bolt manages to crush the competition in the 100 meter dash in Beijing while showboating for the final 20 meters. The result - a fantastic celebration, an uncomfortable interview with Bryant Gumbel on Real Sports, and Jacques Rogge, the head of the IOC, getting his panties in a bundle. Listen Jacques, maybe you should focus more on your countrymen choking away a certain victory in swimming. And frankly, anybody who can continue running sideways at the speed Bolt did without falling on his face, I have plenty of respect for.


Three



Tampa Bay Rays give hope to fans of mediocre baseball teams everywhere, especially yours truly and the other 9,000 fans of the Washington Nationals. Not only because they made it to the World Series, but because they decided that in doing so, they'd routinely brawl the friggin bandwagon fan lovin' Boston Red Sox and knock the Yankees and their $2 trillion payroll out of the postseason. Winning AND playing with heart... please pay attention Misters Zimmerman, Kearns, Milledge, Acta.

Four

New York Giants spoil Patriots undefeated season with less than 2 minutes left in season. And all members of the 1972 Dolphins simultaneously soil themselves with joy when David Tyree makes the over-the-helmet catch and when Plaxico Burress subsequently catches the game-clinching TD pass on a perfectly-executed fade pattern.

Five

Tom Brady goes down in Week 1 of 2008 NFL season. This isn't the story. What is the story are the thousands of fantasy football owners who just lost their first round pick after less than 30 minutes of football and had kindly donated their buy-in fee to the eventual winner of the league.

Six

Oregon State Beavers basketball becomes relevant again. Not because of any success which they can hope to experience on the basketball court. But because their coach just happens to be the brother-in-law of the newly elected President of the United States. Not so sure that this will help recruiting as much as Craig Robinson would hope for. "Hello top 100 recruit. I know you have offers to play in Los Angeles for UCLA and in Washington, DC for Georgetown. But why not come to Corvallis, Oregon and play for me? Hey, by the way, did you know that I'm Barack's brother-in-law?"

Slur Charles

Charles Barkley got the jump on the sobriety checkpoint season by running a stop sign in Scottsdale, Arizona, early New Year's Eve morning. Officers detected the odor of alcohol, and politely asked Slur Charles to step outside the vehicle. He'd probably have a decent shot at beating the rap after refusing the breathalyzer and failing the field sobriety test, seeing how he can blame balance problems on gambling injuries and massive weight gain, but he inexplicably agreed to submit to a blood test.

blahblahblahblahblahblah Best...Mugshot....Ever!

NFL Handicapping - Wild Card Round Schedule Analysis

Due to the NFL's scheduling system, not all playoff-worthy records are created equal. For example, the NFC and AFC West teams had awful strengths of schedule this year, primarily because they have to factor in playing each other.

Strength of schedule (SOS) is the average winning percentage of all sixteen teams played. This year, the 32 teams had SOSs ranging from .447 (San Francisco) to .572 (Cleveland). For perspective, this means the average San Francisco opponent went 7-9 and the average Cleveland opponent went 9-7.

SOS is only useful as a benchmark in analyzing how well a team actually performed. Obviously, a team cannot beat or lose to teams that aren't on the schedule. To know what it means, it is important to look at two other numbers: Strength of Victory (SOV) and Strength of Defeat (SOD). Just as you probably guessed, SOV is the average winning percentage of the teams a team defeated, and SOD is the average winning percentage of the teams that beat a team.

Ranked from easiest schedule to toughest, here is where the eight wild card teams fall:

Atlanta - .459
Miami - .461
Arizona - .486
Indianapolis - .498
Minnesota - .504
Philadelphia - .514
San Diego - .516
Baltimore - .521

Ranked from most cupcakes beaten to fewest, here is how they rank in terms of SOV:

Arizona - .368
San Diego - .398
Miami - .398
Atlanta -.403
Baltimore - .412
Minnesota - .431
Philadelphia -.486
Indianapolis - .492

Ranked in terms of SOD, from teams that lost to bad teams to teams that only lost to studs:

Indianapolis - .516
Atlanta - .581
Philadelphia - .594
Miami - .600
Minnesota - .625
San Diego - .634
Arizona - .638
Baltimore - .763

These numbers are just one tool that can be used to handicap the wild card round. It obviously is superseded by other factors, like matchups, momentum, home field, coaching, injuries, etc.

A couple things do stand out, however. Arizona had a weak schedule and still really only beat the trash on it. Combine that with no real home field advantage and a weak finish, and you'd be hard-pressed to take a mere two points from Vegas.

Philadelphia and Indianapolis look the flakiest here, until one remembers that Indianapolis started slow as Manning's surgery recovery was more serious than we had been led to believe. The fact that Philadelphia, though, has such a clumping between the three numbers rightly indicates that they are the most unpredictable of the bunch. However, this also indicates that they did beat some of the better teams on the schedule this year. I would tend to avoid the Philly-Minnesota game based on its unpredictability on both sides.

Like the Philadelphia-Minnesota game, the numbers are not telling for the Indianapolis-San Diego matchup. San Diego's reflect what would be expected from an 8-8 team in a weak division. Indianapolis' are skewed by their slow start. The spread, Indianapolis (-1), screams SUCKER LINE, though.

Baltimore's whopping .763 SOD stands out, as they only lost to teams with 12 or more wins. I suppose the question that has to be asked is whether Miami is closer to Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, the Giants, and Tennessee, the only teams to beat the Ravens this year, or are they still in the pack behind that elite group?

So based on these, combined with what I already know (or think I know), if I were going to wager Wild Card Weekend I'd do the following:

Ravens (-3) over MIAMI
Falcons (-2) over ARIZONA
Colts (-1) v. SAN DIEGO - No bet.
Eagles (-3) v. MINNESOTA - No bet.

East Coast Bias Totally Off-the-Cuff Playoff Picks

Since we did such a great job picking against-the-spread this year during the regular season, we decided to continue our picks through the playoffs. Of course, this version of picks is straight up and is done in "bracket format" (i.e. projecting the playoffs all the way through). You'll see some variation in our picks. J-Red will join in with his picks just as soon as he finds airfare to Florida for the Ravens playoff game for under $500.00.

J-Red is also going to provide a statistical angle for picking the Wild Card games based on comparing Strength of Victory and Strength of Defeat for those eights.

Brien:
AFC:
Round 1:
Baltimore over Miami - I took the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at 14/1
Indianapolis over San Diego - The Colts are hot

Round 2:
Baltimore over Tennessee - The Titans have been slipping and the Ravens are red-hot
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh - The Colts pass rush will get to Roethlisberger again

Championship:
Indianapolis over Baltimore - The Colts always have the Ravens' number.


NFC:
Round 1:
Atlanta over Arizona - The Cards are in a free-fall. They're lucky they played in a weak division
Philadelphia over Minnesota - Andy Reid or Brad Childress is a tough choice

Round 2:
NY Giants over Philadelphia - The Giants have looked really good lately
Carolina over Atlanta - I haven't seen the Panthers play much, but they look really good

Championship:
NY Giants over Carolina - Playoff experience counts for a lot.

Super Bowl:
Oh Look, it's an all-Manning Super Bowl. That story line wouldn't get overplayed at all with a week off before the Super Bowl. NY Giants over Indianapolis - Repeat champs


J-Red:
AFC:
Wild Card
Baltimore over Miami - Ravens win convincingly with no Miami run game.
San Diego over Indianapolis - I just have a feeling the Colts are going to relax a little too much.

Divisional
Baltimore over Tennessee - The Titans are another good matchup for the Ravens
Pittsburgh over San Diego - Pittsburgh won't overlook San Diego, and they have the D to stop Rivers.

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh over Baltimore - And don't speak to me for the next week.

NFC:
Wild Card
Atlanta over Arizona - Arizona just isn't very good.
Philadelphia over Minnesota - Philly has some "fate is on our side" momentum.

Divisional
NY Giants over Philadelphia - There's a huge talent gap here.
Carolina over Atlanta - Carolina can get into a shootout if necessary.

NFC Championship
Carolina over NY Giants - I think this is where Plaxico's absent hurts the Giants the most.

Super Bowl
Pittsburgh over Carolina - I'm already looking forward to the game and dreading the aftermath.

Jeremy:
AFC:
Round 1
Baltimore over Miami - Miami is much better than Week 7, but so are the Ravens
Indianapolis over San Diego - This actually might not be the laugher people think.

Round 2
Tennessee over Baltimore - The Ravens could pull this out, but I think first to 13 wins.
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis - It all comes down to the Steelers secondary and whether Big Ben is healthy.

Championship
Pittsburgh over Tennessee - Another first to 13 winner.

NFC:
Round 1
Arizona over Atlanta - The Matt Ryan express may hit the end of the road.
Philadelphia over Minnesota - The Eagles are firing on all cylinders right now.

Round 2
Philadelphia over New York Giants - A strange pick to make, but I'm in awe of their performance against Dallas.
Carolina over Arizona - Too many weapons for the Panthers.

Championship
Carolina over Philadelphia - Philly's rush defense will have problems against the two-headed Stewart-Williams attack and Philly will be tired.

Super Bowl:
Pittsburgh over Carolina - Pittsburgh will shut down the Carolina rushing game and force Jake Delhomme to win a Super Bowl. Don't see that so much.



Russell:
AFC:
Round 1:
Baltimore over Miami - The Ravens defense is really good
Indianapolis over San Diego - The Colts are hot and much better than the 8-8 Chargers

Round 2:
Baltimore over Tennessee - Ravens D over a run-oriented Titans team in a classic slug-fest
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis - The Steelers have been finding a way to win all year

Championship:
Pittsburgh over Baltimore - In a matchup of two very similar teams, I give the edge to Big Ben's experience


NFC:
Round 1:
Arizona over Atlanta - The Falcons had a good run, but the Cards will be too much at home
Philadelphia over Minnesota - The Eagles D will expose the Vikings QBs

Round 2:
NY Giants over Philadelphia - The Giants have looked really good lately
Carolina over Arizona - The Cards aren't so good on the East Coast

Championship:
Carolina over NY Giants - Carolina should have won this game a week ago, they won't miss the FG this time.

Super Bowl:
Carolina over Pittsburgh - Carolina's D will sack Big Ben a lot, and I think Delhomme has enough weapons in the passing game to keep the Steelers honest


RECAP (Super Bowl Predictions):
Brien - NY Giants over Indianapolis
J-Red - Pittsburgh over Carolina
Jeremy - Pittsburgh over Carolina
Russell - Carolina over Pittsburgh

NFL Draft Order Tiebreakers (In English)

Here are the NFL's draft order tiebreakers in layman's terms. A lot of people Google looking for these, but the NFL's official version is quite difficult to understand. Luckily we've had hands on experience applying the rules, and can translate them into English.

The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record (i.e. - worst picks first). Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule or SOS (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all 16 opponents, same result. Most media sources use the percentage method). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks first).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie and the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks first).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams without a coin toss, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the breakable tie flips against the other team first.

(A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip. In such a case though, the two or more teams from the same division or conference would flip first as part of the conference/division tiebreaking process first, then the draft order coin flip process would take over.)

Pats Beat Bills in a Wind Storm

Yesterday I witnessed one of the strangest plays I've ever seen in a football game. In the second quarter of the Pats-Bills game in Buffalo, Ryan Lindell lined up for a 47 yard field goal. The kick started towards the left goalpost, but then the wind caught it, seemingly accelerating the ball and pushing it so far right that the kick missed the net.

It might not sound that crazy, but watch the video (kick is at the 0:25 mark) and see for yourself.

The wind was so bad that the goalposts were skewed before the game started, and had to be straightened once during the game.

Why I Think Favre Is Coming Back

Yesterday, Brett Favre made a few comments that some in the media have taken to indicate that he is not returning for another season next year. "I had a blast working with these guys. It was a lot of fun", for example. Of course, any player on any non-playoff team could have made the same comment, and it would have just been standard end-of-season wrapup talk. When Favre says it, everyone picks apart each word of the off-the-cuff statement. He had a blast. Why didn't he saying he is having a blast? He must be retiring.

Here's the thing people tend to forget, or at least overlook. Brett Favre is a recovering addict and alcoholic. [NOTE: To my knowledge Favre has never described himself as an alcoholic, but his wife Deanna revealed in her book that he checked himself into alcohol rehabilitation in 1999. He has discussed his addiction to Vicodin.] While he hasn't had any public battles with addiction in many years, he almost certainly still possesses much of the same style of thinking.

For example, he procrastinates and he is indecisive. Why quit today when he could just quit tomorrow? He constantly resets his own deadlines, putting off any decision that might paint him into a corner or have some sense of finality. He is also very selfish, not caring what his actions do to the people around him. He seems to tend towards the pain he knows (playing) rather than take a risk on an unknown (retirement). Also, like a firefighter who dabbles in arson just to create rescue scenarios for himself, I really think Brett Favre subconsciously at times sets up rescue scenarios in games. He doesn't just want to win. He wants to win the way he wants to win.

When he finally did announce his retirement, I guarantee these thoughts kept popping into his mind. "It wasn't as bad as I remember. Sure, there was some pain, but it was fun too. I'm older and wiser now. This time will be different. I don't feel like I quit the right way. I still need to get it out of my system." He minimized the bad things and inflated the good.

And so it started with a little nibble, a little text message taste back to the Packers. It progressed into a full-blown football relapse. Favre was suddenly obsessed with playing football in 2008. It became obvious, quickly, that he wasn't going to be able to control how it would happen. His fantasy of leading Minnesota or Tampa Bay into the playoffs was smashed by the Packers. They essentially said, "We want you out of our life. We love you, but can't handle you anymore." Fans, not privy to the torture Brett forced the Packers' front office to endure, said the usual outsider stuff. "How could you turn your back on him after everything he did for you?" Others said, "He'll change his mind again rather than go play in New York. This can't be what he wanted." It wasn't, but Favre surfaced with the Jets, looking slightly nauseous but determined to prove that he was right all along.

Fast forward to today. As of right now, Favre is probably utterly convinced he is not going to play for the Jets next year, or anywhere else. His shoulder hurts. He looked pretty old. He played pretty poorly, especially late in the season. He didn't recapture the glory of those Super Bowl runs of a decade ago. He's probably coming to grips with the idea that he'll just never get that feeling back. So he probably will announce his retirement some time by the end of February.

By March, April or May, he'll start feeling really good again. The Jets will still be without a long-term quarterback plan, with Kellen Clemens tentatively preparing to be the Week 1 starter, barring a trade. Brett Ratliff, from Utah, is the only other QB on the roster, and the free agent market is looking very thin. They won't make any big moves because they'll wonder if Favre will want back in. The same thoughts will keep creeping into his head, and he'll know the door is open.

We fans will all know that he would be a moron for coming back again. We think in terms of tarnishing his legacy. It is extremely unlikely that the Jets could win the Super Bowl next year, as they would still have a lot of AFC teams to suddenly leapfrog to even be a legitimate contender. The media will fall for the new retirement hook, line and sinker, too. They love to compare him to Unitas, who spent his final forgotten year in San Diego. They always seem to forget that Joe Montana, Marcus Allen and Emmitt Smith played MULTIPLE years in exile.

I don't think Brett particularly cares about violating our notions of how a player is supposed to maintain his image and legacy. I think Brett cares about what Brett wants, and I think that Brett is going to want to play football again in 2009.

2009 NFL Draft Order after Week 17

As of today, assuming the playoffs went according to seeding, this would be the 2009 NFL Draft Order (bold indicates locked in):

1) Detroit (0-16)
2) St. Louis (2-14)
3) Kansas City (2-14)
4) Seattle (4-12)
5) Cleveland (4-12)
6) Cincinnati (4-11-1)
7) Oakland (5-11)
8) Jacksonville (5-11)
9) Green Bay (6-10)
10) San Francisco (7-9)
11) Buffalo (7-9)
12) Denver (8-8)
13) Washington (8-8)
14) New Orleans (8-8)
15) Houston (8-8)
16) San Diego (8-8)
17) New York Jets (9-7)
18) Chicago (9-7)
19) Tampa Bay (9-7)
20) Detroit via Dallas (9-7) (Roy Williams deal)
21) Arizona (9-7)
22) Philadelphia (9-6-1)
23) Minnesota (10-6)
24) New England (11-5)
25) Atlanta (11-5)
26) Baltimore (11-5)
27) Miami (11-5)
28) Indianapolis (12-4)
29) Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)
30) Pittsburgh (12-4)
31) Super Bowl Loser (New York Giants or Tennessee)
32) Super Bowl Champion (New York Giants or Tennessee)

The draft tiebreakers are as follows:

1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd

2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st

3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.

4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.

5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.

6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).

8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.

As it currently stands, all ties can be broken using just strength of schedule and assumed playoff exit for playoff teams.

NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread

Brien (39-39-2)
Just when I thought I might actually know what I'm doing, I go 0-9-1 over the last two weeks. Ouch.

NY Giants (+6.5) over MINNESOTA - I know the Giants are sliding, but not this bad.

NY JETS (-2.5) over Miami - As long as there aren't 2 feet for snow on the ground again, the Jets should be fine.

ARIZONA (-6) over Seattle - I know the Cards aren't very good, but the Seahawks are still worse.

Washington (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO - Even with the West Coast trip, the Skins are better than this.

Dallas (+1) over PHILADELPHIA - The Cowboys can't possibly be as bad as they looked last week.

J-Red (36-40-4)
Last week didn't go so well for any of us. I can still end the year at or above .500 though.

Jacksonville (+12) over BALTIMORE - I think the Ravens will win, but I don't expect a cakewalk.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Detroit - I don't think the Packers' pride will let them just roll over for a team this bad.

Miami (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS - The Jets are in a freefall.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Washington - East going west doesn't hurt as badly, but the Skins just want this over. Singletary wants a job.

Dallas (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA - Dallas seems poised to capitalize on their reprieve.

Jeremy (42-36-2)
Alright, I just need to hold serve this week to take the ECB crown for the 2008 season. Let's see what I can come up with (odds as of Wednesday 12/23/08 at 1pm)...

Denver (+8) over SAN DIEGO - This is a huge spread in a winner-take-all game for the division. I have no idea who will win, but I can't see a blowout.

NEW YORK JETS (-2) over Miami - Another winner-take-all game. Not so worried about climate for Miami after they won in frigid K.C. last week. But never bet against Favre in these games.

Dallas (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA - Another game with everything on the line for the teams. Romo has not been good of late but the Cowboys scoring as much as they did on the Ravens' D last week impressed me. And the Redskins gave the blueprint to shutting down Westbrook.

Detroit (+9.5) over GREEN BAY - I know that the Lions haven't won at Green Bay since about 1974. Still, you have to think that they'll put up a hell of a fight to avoid 0-16 and this is a big spread.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Washington - Last week's Redskins win was counterfeit. You heard it from this Redskins fan right here. We still only scored 10 points despite holding the ball for 33 minutes. We are no better than an 8-win team.

Magic 8 Ball (39-39-2)

Denver (+8) over SAN DIEGO - "My answer is no." (Chargers won't beat spread)

Miami (+2) over NEW YORK JETS - "No." (Jets won't beat spread)

PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) over Dallas - "Signs point to yes." (Eagles will beat the spread)

Detroit (+9.5) over GREEN BAY - "My answer is no." (Packers won't beat the spread)

Washington (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO - "Don't count on it." (49ers won't beat the spread)

Russell (34-44-2)
Russell is incommunicado this week, which is just fine with J-Red, who is guaranteed to stay out of the cellar now.

RECAP
Brien: ARI, DAL, NYG, NYJ, WAS
J-Red: DAL, GB, MIA, JAX, SF
Jeremy: DAL, DEN, DET, NYJ, SF
Russell: Bench warrant issued, failure to appear

Standings
1) Jeremy (42-36-2)
2) Magic 8 Ball (39-39-2)
Brien (39-39-2)
4) Jason (36-40-4)
5) Russell (34-44-2)