Kentucky Derby Picks

The past performances for the race are available from DRF here, with a surprisingly good “Easy Form” version available here.

It’s that time of year again, the first Sunday in May is coming up fast, and with it, the most exciting two minutes in sports.

1. Lookin At Lucky (3-1): I just can’t see taking a horse at those odds in a 20-horse field.  The past races look good, if you can throw out the latest result, a Show at the Santa Anita Derby where he was steadied.  He’s run in great class over the last 8 months, and won most outings.
2. Ice Box (10-1): Took a huge jump in Beyers over the off-season, and has been prepping at 9 furlongs all year (3 races at that distance).  We’ll keep an eye on him.
3. Noble’s Promise (12-1): He’s lost to Lookin at Lucky three times, and was beaten by 3 other Derby horses in his last outing.
4. Super Saver (15-1): Consistently improving Beyers, but not a lot of wins to show for it.
5. Line of David (30-1): Came out of nowhere to win the Arkansas Derby (after two turf wins).  This is the type of horse I like to watch at Churchill.
6. Stately Victor (30-1): Came out of nowhere to win the Bluegrass after two poor showings on turf (sound familiar?).  He’s a closer, which is always good at the Derby distance.
7. American Lion (30-1): Won the Illinois Derby (G3) from the front, but doesn’t look to have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter.
8. Dean’s Kitten (50-1): Never run on a real dirt surface (mostly turf and a few synthetic races).  The dirt workouts don’t look very good either.
9. Make Music for Me (50-1): Another one with no dirt experience, and no wins off the turf.
10. Paddy O’Prado (20-1): Best results on turf, may have the stamina for the distance.
11. Devil May Care (10-1): The only chick in the race is one of only three horses to hit a 100 Beyer figure, but she’s taking a big jump in class going against the big boys.  Also, I don’t like to see “shied from whip” in the notes.
12. Conveyance (12-1): Consistent high Beyers, but hasn’t raced a G1 and didn’t win his only attempt at 9 furlongs.
13. Jackson Bend (15-1): Always a bridesmaid, he doesn’t look to have what it takes to cross the line first.
14. Mission Impazible (20-1): There’s nothing to write home about here.  A good, but not spectacular, showing in the Louisiana Derby.
15. Discreetly Mine (30-1): Not enough stamina.
16. Awesome Act (10-1): I don’t know why he’s getting odds this short, he hasn’t run much distance, and had mixed results over the last 6 months.
17. Dublin (12-1): Doesn’t win races, doesn’t have the legs to run 1.25 miles.
18. Backtalk (50-1): Awful Beyers, no wins lately against good competition, totally out-classed.
19. Homeboykris (50-1):  Another out-classed wannabe
20. Sidney’s Candy (5-1): Great results, but all on synthetic, and he’s got a long way to go from the far outside.

OK, so who do we like?

• Ice Box
• Line of David
• Stately Victor

And I’m wishy-washy on the favorites

• Lookin at Lucky
• Sidney’s Candy

So I’ll take a $2 exacta with Ice Box, Line of David, and Stately Victor over those three plus Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy. A $24 bet that should pay out nicely if it hits.

If you’re going to the track, that’s:

$2 EX 2,5,6 | 1,2,5,6,20