I was the only one to have a losing week this week, so maybe we are getting somewhat better at this. At least Magic 8 continues to roll on. Jeremy now leads by 2 games over J-Red and 2.5 over Brien. Russell is still within a prayer, at 5 back.
RECAP
Brien (3-2-0) - ARI, MIN, SD, TB, TEN
Jeremy (3-1-1) - ARI, CLE, KC, SD, STL
J-Red (2-3-0) - DET, JAX, NO, PIT, TB
Russell (2-2-1) - CLE, DET, OAK, STL, TB
Magic 8 (4-0-1) - ARI, BAL, JAX, KC, STL
STANDINGS
Magic 8 (32-17-6 for .636)
Jeremy (27-22-6 for .545)
J-Red (26-26-3 for .500)
Brien (26-27-2 for .491)
Russell (24-29-2 for .454)
November 19, 2007
Week 11 NFL Against the Spread Recap
Summer is here and there's never been a better time to try your hand at online sports betting. Place your bets on your favorite horse with horse racing or even try your luck with your favorite football team. Enjoying sport is just a click away!
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Again, I will loan out my Magic 8 Ball for the princely sum of $500 for anybody going to Vegas. Or we can work out a staking plan where you'll stake me 1/3 of your winnings for providing you the Holy Grail of NFL picks. Seriously... a .645 winning percentage is about as good as it gets in the gambling industry.
I've heard 60% is the gold standard for picking every game. I think some "experts" might boast up to 70% for picking "select" games.
It's certainly bordering on highly improbable, for something that should be 50-50 on each pick. I will provide a statistical analysis if it hasn't returned to the neighborhood of .500 by the end of the year.
Still 30 games left to pick, so the aberration could correct itself...like the Redskins.
Come on Russell, you can't throw out a math challenge like that and expect people on this blog not to follow up on it!
It's been a little while since I've done statistics, but from what I get, there's only a 2.21% chance of the Magic 8 ball doing better than 31 successes in 49 tries (ignoring pushes, which is probably not precise). The Excel function I used was:
=1-BINOMDIST(31,49,0.5,TRUE)
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