Atlanta Braves, One Third of the Way

After almost two months of baseball and a third of the season (exactly, after tomorrow's game), it's time to look back at the season so far and assess their chances moving forward. The Braves are currently 28-25 and in 3rd in the NL East, 2.5 games behind the 1st place (!?!?!) Marlins.

Including tonight's debacle, the Braves are a miserable 6-18 on the road, including an 0-11 record in one run games on the road. Of those eleven losses, the Braves only scored 5 runs once, 4 or less in the rest. Clearly the offense has struggled significantly on the road. The last two games are perfect examples. Hudson went 8 IP and gave up 2 ER last night (ND, 3-2 loss), and Reyes gave up 1 ER in 7+ IP tonight (L, 1-0 loss). Those games are not on the starting pitchers. In both games, the bullpen either let a runner score (their own or inherited) within their first inning of work, but the offense is really to blame.

On the positive side, the Braves have the best home record in the NL, and Chipper Jones is out of this world right now. In a shutout tonight, Chipper was still on base after 3 of his 4 trips to the plate, and he is now hitting .418 and leading everyone in OBP and BA. He's not just hitting singles either, coming in 3rd in the NL in slugging. The pitching, especially the starters, have been great, and the bullpen recently had a stretch of 20+ IP with 0 ER.

Mike Hampton re-defines the term "injury-prone."

Injuries:
The injury bug hits every team, and the Braves are certainly no exception. Mike Hampton, who the Braves hoped would be the 4th starter, re-injured himself warming up for his first game and has yet to pitch an inning. Smoltz had a sore shoulder all April and has been on the DL since. Even the durable Tom Glavine spent a stint on the DL. Martin Prado, who was having a great April as the utility infielder, is hurt, and Mark Kotsay, known to have a bad back and coming off surgery, has missed the last three starts. Peter Moylan (ERA under 2 last year in 60+ outings) is out for the year, and Rafael Soriano, the supposed closer, has missed 6 weeks with elbow soreness.

Any smart Braves fan is thrilled to have "Z" over Andruw. (AP Photo)

Offseason brilliance:
The Braves' offseason moves look great two months into the year. Andruw Jones got paid huge bucks by the Dodgers, only to suck and now have knee surgery. In his stead, Kotsay has hit almost .300, is better defensively than Andruw this year, and has only missed 5 starts with his bad back, all for ~$10 million less. He's also experienced and a good solid guy in the clubhouse.

The Braves also sent stud SS Edgar Renteria to the Tigers. Edgar has played well up north, but the return was worth it. Jair Jurrjens, the "5th" starter, has been consistently outstanding in his rookie season, and a good minor league prospect came to Atlanta in the same deal. Also, Yuniel Escobar, the new SS, has looked great defensively and is hitting over .300. The Braves' front office did another great job.

Jair Jurrjens: What a great find, filling a huge need (see Chuck James). (AP Photo)

Starting pitching:
I'm just going to let the numbers speak for themselves. They've all been terrific (except Chuck James, and Reyes a couple times).

Campillo - 2 starts, 0.86 ERA, 1-0
Smoltz - 5 starts, 2.00 ERA, 27 IP, 3-2
Jurrjens (rookie) - 11 starts, 2.86 ERA, 66 IP, 5-3
Hudson - 12 starts, 2.90 ERA, 77.2 IP, 7-3
Glavine - 9 starts, 4.76 ERA, 45.1 IP, 2-2

That's 30 starts out of 53 games by pitchers with an ERA under 3, and all but James' 5 starts have been by pitchers with an ERA under 5, including the emergency starts by Jeff Bennett. What more could you ask? The Braves have not been blown out much.

"Yeah, I'm that good."

Hitting:
The Braves have great offensive numbers, the problem is inconsistency, especially on the road. The last two games against mediocre pitchers are perfect examples. Tonight, the Braves only managed 9 base runners, 7 of them from the top 4 spots in the lineup. Last night, of the Braves' 8 base runners, 4 came from the bottom 5 slots (including Hudson's double). The Braves will not win, no matter how great Chipper is, when the 4-5-6 part of the lineup is 1-10. Someone has to drive him in. It's hard to complain about the team statistics, but Tex and Francoeur need to pick it up if this team is going to the postseason. Neither of those guys should have slugging percentages at .420, and when they come alive, the Braves might be unstoppable. Jones, McCann, Escobar, Blanco, Kotsay, and Johnson are all at .294 or better. Chipper and McCann have slugging percentages around .600 from the 3 and 5 spots. Tex and Frenchie need to catch up and protect those guys from the 4 and 6 holes.

Playoffs?:
The Braves have a surprisingly solid pitching corps, and it should get better with the return of Soriano soon, and hopefully Smoltz shortly thereafter as the closer. A little consistency from the bats, especially on the road, would make this unquestionably the team to beat in the NL East. All the pieces are in place, they just need to execute.