Eight Reasons Big Brown Won't Win

OUR FREE 2008 PREAKNESS PICKS ARE HERE.

So you want to bet against prohibitive favorite Big Brown tomorrow in the Preakness Stakes? You'll have to convince yourself that he might not win, which is a challenge. Here are some things that might actually point to Big Brown not getting the 2839 length victory we've been told is inevitable.

1) Big Brown has never run on a muddy track - It rained all day today, and we got three-plus inches of rain earlier this week. Plus, there will be 11 races run before Big Brown gets into the gate. How will he like getting mud thrown in his face? His blood rating is good for mud (388), but mine was good for me to be short, and I'm 6-3.

spacer

2) Big Brown is prone to quarter cracks - Quarter cracks are vertical cracks in the hoof that cause the horse pain, can bleed, and can actually cause a horse to refuse to walk. Big Brown is prone to these. Because of this, he can't have nail-in horseshoes, but rather must have glue-on shoes. Muddy tracks have been known to literally suck glued on shoes right off a horse's foot. Not only would this slow him down quite a bit, but one leg would get different traction than the other three.

3) Big Brown has never started between horses in a full field - This is actually true. Big Brown has had four career starts. In three of them he has only had one neighbor, running from the rail (against 9 others) and from the outside (20th of 20 and 12th of 12). In the fourth he had the 4th position against only five other horses. In this race, he'll be in the 6th slot (but still betting #7 due to Behindthebar's departure), with five horses to his left and six horses to his right. Will this be to his liking? We have no way of knowing. He's a horse.

4) The dreaded bounce - The bounce is mythical among horseplayers. It is responsible for so many talking themselves out of just avoiding a race when one horse looks like a sure thing. The idea, which has some validity, is that a horse who has run some incredible races will have a "bounce" race, where he just doesn't have it. Unfortunately, it's also akin to deciding that the roulette wheel has to come up black this time because it's been red so many times....only the horse actually IS GOOD, where as red just occupies 18 of the 42 possible spaces. Trying to predict the bounce is nearly impossible, but it COULD happen. Of course, it could happen and he could still win in this field.

5) Big Brown is turning around fast - Well, yeah, of course he is. The Derby is always two weeks before the Preakness. Unfortunately, this year none of the other horses ran two weeks ago. Yeah, I know Gayego was in the Derby, but he definitely didn't RUN in the Derby. He was further from seeing Big Brown's finish than 25,000 fans in the stands. Many people are pointing to the 2000 Preakness, where Fusaichi Pegasus was viewed as unbeatable (he went off at 1-5). Well, he wasn't beaten by Red Bullet, who sat out the Derby. There are some clear differences. First, Jerry Bailey rode Red Bullet and he went off at 6-1. None of the horses tomorrow will go off at 6-1. There are some major similarities though, including that Kent Desormeaux rode Fusaichi and that the track was damp that day.

6) Karma hates Richard Dutrow - Trainer Richard Dutrow's list of violations is a mile long. He's been caught drugging horses. He was once charged with check fraud early in his career. He's not thought to be a good guy, and he's quite full of himself. Of course, karma would most like to crush his dreams in the Belmont, but then again it might not want to toss him an extra $1M to build up the drama. There's also a real possibility Big Brown could test positive for drugs, though testing wouldn't affect the betting outcome.

7) Everyone has gone crazy - This is actually one of the most intriguing angles to me. Based on early betting, Big Brown is 1-9 on the tote board. That means a $90 bet would earn you $10, plus your bet back. If my math is right, that means handicappers believe that Big Brown would win this race nine times in ten runnings against these eleven opponents. I mean, his resume is very impressive, but is it Citation/Secretariat impressive?

spacer

8) Barbaro - It's extremely unlikely, but Big Brown could pull up. He might not suffer a horrible injury like Eight Belles and Barbaro, but he might suffer SOME injury.

So there you have it. If you needed a reason to bet ABBB (Anyone But Big Brown), hopefully you found something on this list to convince you.