Mark Teixeira - Somebody's Lying

In the last hour news has broken that Red Sox owner John Henry is dropping their pursuit of the biggest fish left in the pond, free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Frankly, somebody has to be lying. The known players in this deal are the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Red Sox and agent Scott Boras. Here is what we "know".

Baltimore Orioles

Reported Offer - Seven years, $140M ($20M/year average, though some estimates say the O's upped it to $150 for a $21.4M/year average)

The Orioles are counting on Teixeira's willingness to take a "home town discount", as Teix is from nearby Anne Arundel County, though they have indicated that they may up the offer. Normally, this would be possible. Baltimore's baseball heroes own the town, and he would have a leg up on being the favorite son immediately. If GM Andy MacPhail can really steer the Orioles into competitive waters again, Teix would achieve legendary status. On the other hand, Teix retained Scott Boras who is known as a $$$ first agent. The Orioles may be helped by the fact that Teixeira would be the endorsement king immediately.

The Orioles are often perceived as being a team that cannot be trusted, but that mostly stems from the former paralysis at the top prior to MacPhail's arrival. MacPhail now has full autonomy to make signings, and owner Peter Angelos supposedly does not have final approval over every tiny move.

Boston Red Sox

Reported Offer - Eight years, $184M (23M/year average)

Until John Henry publicly put the kibosh on it, the Red Sox were assumed to be the frontrunners to land Teix. They are already competitive, and can offer the kind of money Boras is known to extract. So are they really out of the running, or are they calling Scott Boras' bluff? Given that Henry personally felt burned by Manny's way of whining himself out of town, I think he is being forthcoming.

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Let's also not forget that Boras held the Red Sox hostage after they paid $51M just for the rights to TALK to Dice-K. He also teased the Sox with A-Rod before he landed in pinstripes. He also represented Johnny Damon, who the Red Sox let go essentially because they thought Boras was bluffing about the Yankees' offer. Basically they're like the guy at the poker table who only seems to call the bullshitter's bluff when he's really lucked into a good hand. There *might* be some bitterness there.

Los Angeles Angels

Reported Offer - 8 years, estimated at $160M ($20M/year average)

Official news reports from December 13 have the Angels making an eight-year offer to Teixeira, but the dollar amount of $160M is only found in blogs. That makes the Angels the big wild card in this bidding. Since the dollar figure has not been disclosed, they very well may have the best deal on the table. Orioles fans will recall that they felt Vladimir Guerrero was locked up right until the moment that the Angels announced the signing. When they really were in the running for Guerrero, they were mostly silent. Here, again, they have been the only team to really be able to hold their offer under wraps.

That brings us to the the man who owes the Angels everything right now:

Scott Boras

Yes, the man behind A-Rod's 10-year $250M disaster and Dice-K's post negotiation fee ransom is at it again. He is known for being all about the bottom line, and also for being willing to play a little fast and loose with the truth. Boras would be in a dangerous situation if it weren't for the Angels' unwillingness to disclose their offer. In effect, this gives Boras free reign to tell the other bidders that they've been outbid, whether they have been or not.

So why would any team listen to Boras these days? The only people less trusted than agents in the baseball business are the other GMs. Even if the GMs know that Boras is probably lying to them, they would rather be shown up by him (where they can smile it off and say "worth every penny", etc.) than by another GM. Boras knows this, and the secret to his success is playing off of that distrust.

Washington Nationals

Reported Offer - 8 years, $160M ($20M/year average)

The Nationals are out of their league here in two senses. First, they were the first to put their offer on the table, which is like showing your cards in poker when you don't have to. Second, they can only be used as a pawn to inflate other offers as Teixeira would have to be crazy to go to a city where he will have NO exposure and NO endorsement potential. They're telling the truth because they don't know any better.

SOOOOOO.........

Who is lying? Boras would have us believe that the Angels, or some unknown suitor (Atlanta would be logical, but this isn't their m.o.), has offered around $200M over eight years. That's the only type of offer that would cause the Red Sox to publicly say "we're out of the running". It would be illogical for the Orioles or Nationals to open at $20M/year and then jump to $25M/year. Likewise, what does Henry gain by claiming to be out of it if he really does intend to go higher?

So either the Angels have blown the market away with their bid, or Boras is lying. I think we'll know which it is by Monday. If the Red Sox were shown the Angels bid and they really have no intention of matching it, Teix should be a long-term Angel by Monday. Boras simply has to double check with Washington and Baltimore and then leak out a "close to signing with the Angels" story. If nothing is biting, he signs Monday.

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Then again, the other possibility is that EVERYONE is lying. Perhaps Andy MacPhail leaked that the Orioles would be willing to up their offer just to lend credence to Boras when he tells teams that there is a megabid floating out there. In effect, he gets the benefit of making Orioles fans think he's really down in the mud and the obvious benefit of making the Red Sox overpay (though in the long run this sets the bar higher for all free agents).

If Boras is lying though, he has to float a different story by Monday. I would look for the "Mark really wants to be on the East Coast" angle.