As of today, assuming the playoffs went according to seeding, this would be the 2009 NFL Draft Order (bold indicates locked in):
1) Detroit (0-16)
2) St. Louis (2-14)
3) Kansas City (2-14)
4) Seattle (4-12)
5) Cleveland (4-12)
6) Cincinnati (4-11-1)
7) Oakland (5-11)
8) Jacksonville (5-11)
9) Green Bay (6-10)
10) San Francisco (7-9)
11) Buffalo (7-9)
12) Denver (8-8)
13) Washington (8-8)
14) New Orleans (8-8)
15) Houston (8-8)
16) San Diego (8-8)
17) New York Jets (9-7)
18) Chicago (9-7)
19) Tampa Bay (9-7)
20) Detroit via Dallas (9-7) (Roy Williams deal)
21) Arizona (9-7)
22) Philadelphia (9-6-1)
23) Minnesota (10-6)
24) New England (11-5)
25) Atlanta (11-5)
26) Miami (11-5)
27) Baltimore (11-5)
28) Indianapolis (12-4)
29) Philadelphia via Carolina (12-4)
30) Pittsburgh (12-4)
31) Super Bowl Loser (New York Giants or Tennessee)
32) Super Bowl Champion (New York Giants or Tennessee)
Note that the active teams (including Arizona, Philadelphia and San Diego) could still pick 31st or 32nd by appearing in the Super Bowl. Thus some bolded teams are "locked", but still could move up a spot higher if playoff teams with worse records make it all the way.
The draft tiebreakers are as follows:
1) Super Bowl Winner picks 32nd
2) Super Bowl Loser picks 31st
3) Teams are ranked in inverse order of their record. Ties count as a half win and half loss.
4) A playoff team always picks after a non-playoff team with the same regular season record. If two playoff teams have the same regular season record, but one was eliminated in an earlier round, that team picks first.
5) Ties are then broken using strength of schedule (average of all 16 opponent's winning percentage, divisionmates count twice since they were played twice. Or count the wins of all opponents, same result). Weaker schedule picks earlier.
6) If SOS fails to break the tie, and the teams are in the same division, apply the division playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).
7) If SOS fails to break the tie, the teams are not in the same division, but the teams are in the same conference, apply the conference playoff tiebreakers (except the "loser" picks higher).
8) If the teams are still tied, or are in different conferences, a coin toss decides the order. If three teams are tied such that the tie can be broken as to two teams, but not between any of those two and a third team, the "loser" of the two-team tie flips against the other team first. A scenario where all three teams are stone tied is nearly impossible since there are only two conferences and intraconference tiebreakers go very deep before a coin flip.
As it currently stands, all ties can be broken using just strength of schedule and assumed playoff exit for still active playoff teams.
January 4, 2009
2009 NFL Draft Order after Wild Card Round
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3 Responses:
The system stinks. A team that has a better record but doesn't make the playoff gets hosed again because in the draft it is all about your record. What a system
I tend to agree that it's a little hypocritical to say a team can make the playoffs at 8-8 because they won their division but they still get to pick before an 11-5 team that didn't make the playoffs because that team had a tougher division/conference.
Then again, the draft is about rankings the teams from worst to best, and no one would argue that the Chargers were better than the Patriots this regular season.
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