NFL Picks Week 1

Welcome back to ECB's continuing coverage of degenerate gambling and the National Football League. Each week of the season for the past two years we've each offered five against-the-spread picks. Jeremy's Magic 8 Ball competes against his picks, determining whether or not the home team will beat the spread. All spreads are taken from Sheridan's Odds in USA Today.

In 2008, Jeremy was the winner. In 2007, much to the embarrassment of all of us here at ECB, Magic 8 Ball won the competition.

Off we go - onto Week 1 of the 2009 season... where nobody really knows much of anything.

Brien (0-0-0)

The rule in week 1 is to go against the grain. There's tons of conventional wisdom about which teams will improve this year and which will take a few steps back. We know from past experience that the conventional wisdom is probably wrong, but the lines won't figure that out for a few weeks.

CAROLINA +1 over Philadelphia - The Eagles are a sexy Super Bowl pick for some reason, and everyone's writing off Jake Delhomme based on one bad game.

Denver +4.5 over CINCINNATI - Everyone agrees the Broncos will suck this year, which is enough to make me take the points.

Miami +4 over ATLANTA - Conventional wisdom says the Dolphins were a fluke last year.

CLEVELAND +4 over Minnesota - I know Brett Favre isn't supposed to tank until December, but I don't think the Vikes will be as good as people think.

St. Louis +8.5 over SEATTLE - The Rams will probably suck, but the Seahawks shouldn't be giving more than a touchdown to anyone yet.

Jason (0-0-0)

BALTIMORE (-13) over Kansas City - The Ravens tend to do well in these "blood in the water" home games. How is K.C. going to score?

NY GIANTS (-6.5) over Washington - How are the Redskins going to score?

HOUSTON (-5) over New York Jets - DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams would like to meet you Mr. Sanchez.

Denver (+4) over CINCINNATI - Denver has been demolished in the media after they basically imploded the team. This might be their out-of-division win for the year.

ATLANTA (-4) over Miami - I still think last year was a fluke for Miami, but not for Matt Ryan and Roddy White.

Jeremy (0-0-0)

CINCINNATI (-4) over Denver - Kyle Orton... child please. A healthy Carson Palmer spells doom for the Broncos.

Chicago (+3.5) over GREEN BAY - The flip side of the coin is Jay Cutler with the Bears... I'm predicting a breakout year for Devin Hester with somebody to finally get him the ball.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) over Washington - This line is a little big and scares me. Not to mention I'm not sure who Eli will throw the ball to. That said, the Giants' DL will absolutely blow up the 'Skins' OL.

HOUSTON (-4.5) over New York Jets - Rookie QB on the road in his NFL debut... I'm going to take the Texans.

Minnesota (-4) over CLEVELAND - I'll take Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre with a possible cracked rib any day on the road over Jamal Lewis and Brady Quinn.

Magic 8 Ball (0-0-0)

CINCINNATI (-4) over Denver - "My sources say yes." (Bengals will beat spread)

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Chicago - "My sources say yes." (Packers will beat spread)

Washington (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS - "No." (Giants won't beat spread)

HOUSTON (-4.5) over New York Jets - "Yes." (Texans will beat spread)

CLEVELAND (+4) over Minnesota - "My sources say yes." (Browns will beat spread)

Russell (0-0-0)

San Diego (-9.5) over OAKLAND - New year, same Raiders.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Kansas City - The Ravens D against an inept offense. I like my chances.

Minnesota (-4) over CLEVELAND - The Vikings will be really, really good, even if Favre isn't perfect. Just the threat is enough.

HOUSTON (-5) over NY Jets - The Texans get it done with Schaub healthy (kind of) and the Jets working the kinks out.

Dallas (-6) over TAMPA BAY - New OC, new QB, big problems.

Recap

Brien: CAR, DEN, MIA, CLE, STL

Jason: ATL, BAL, DEN, HOU, NYG

Jeremy: CIN, CHI, HOU, NYG, MIN

Russell: SD, BAL, MIN, HOU, DAL