With 2:08 remaining in the 4th quarter, up 6, 34-28, Bill Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2. Thanks to a bobble, Kevin Faulk's reception was spotted short of the marker. Without any time outs, New England could not challenge and Peyton Manning was a mere 30 yards away from winning the game with a full 2:00 left and a time out. Obviously, the Colts won.
Some might say that Belichick's decision to go for it reflects his arrogance, but I think he made the right move. His defense was gassed, and he simply KNEW Manning would take the Colts down the field with two full minutes. He could not risk giving the ball back, and the Patriots short passing game is the most reliable in football. If Faulk makes a clean catch, the Patriots kneel and win. He didn't, and Belichick was made to look the fool.
Belichick did the equivalent of walking Alex Rodriguez with the bases loaded in a two-run game. No quarterback has inspired such legitimate fear. The only real question is whether the disrespect he showed his own defense will have repercussions for the remainder of the season. He essentially told his team that they could not stop Manning, especially with no time outs to change personnel.
And Bill, next time leave your headset on until after you fail to block the extra point or run the ensuing kickoff back for a touchdown. Don't send the message that all hope is lost with 13 seconds left down a point.
8 Responses:
I like your analysis of Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth down late in the game. It's the only explanation that I've heard so far that makes sense. I was hoping that NE would punt in that situation but I admire Belichick's courage to go for it. Showed a lot of guts.
What do you make of USC's recent slide? Do you think Pete Carroll will be able to get the Trojans out of their apparent funk so that they can close out the season with wins over UCLA and a good AZ team? Hated to see them lose to Harbaugh of all people.
I have always thought that Pete Carroll is a great recruiter and manager, but a horrible in-game coach. I think Norm Chow kept Carroll from making rash decisions when he was there, and since his departure it has not been the same.
Speaking of going for it on 4th and 2, Carroll probably lost the Rose Bowl to Texas when he decided LenDale White was unstoppable and went for it from midfield. Vince Young was taking over the game, and Carroll knew he couldn't give the ball back. Basically the same thing happened last night.
Dude is an idiot just like Fridge was an idiot when he did the same thing (twice) vs. Clemson. "Worked" for Fridge, didn't work for the Pats.
You have to punt the ball away there and hope your D can slow down the Colts and hold them out of the end zone. Giving him the ball on the 30 is just unacceptable.
Yea, that was a pretty dumb decision on his part. Colts had one timeout? At least you could have tried to make Peyton work for it. You just have to hope it works out and you make a big play somewhere.
USC's recent slide has to do with having a freshman QB and poor defense. 4 of the last 5 they just looked awful defensively. I'm glad personally since the PAC10 is starting to earn respect in my book.
But they're kneeling if they get it, and that's an 80-90% play for them. He even "caught" the ball over the line. But for the bobble, the game is over. If they had a time out to challenge, the game was probably over.
I think 80-90% is a drastic overstatement. And "caught" it if he didn't bobble it... is just an excuse.
The Colts would've started at around their 30 yard line with one timeout, no two minute warning, 1:45 on the clock, needing a touchdown. The Pats D could give up the middle of the field short and concentrate on sideline routes. Send a bunch of blitzers. It opens up the defense and restricts the offense. Giving it to them on the 29 hamstrings your defense (who you just told they suck), opens up the entire field for Manning to operate with and takes the clock out of the equation.
It was dumb no matter how you slice it. And even if it worked it was still dumb, just like when MD did it in their only decent win this year...
One of my friends who happens to be a Pats fan sent me this.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
Idea is that it would have been better mathematically to go for it rather than punt.
I like the decision to go for it. And if you subscribe to the Easterbrook thinking, he was actually playing the percentages. But whatever the percentages are, if it less than 100%, it may fail.
As a USC alumnus, their slide this season has to do with a few factors:
1) Loss of Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator. You can't understand this one;
2) Loss of half of their defense to the NFL;
3) A true freshman quarterback, who while amazingly talented, is still a true freshman; and
4) Injuries to their top two WRs, top RB, and both TEs. They had to take someone who was redshirting and put him in at WR because of so many injuries.
So, let's just call it a rebuilding year. And in all this, USC still has an outside shot of actually winning the conference for the 8th straight year and going to the Rose Bowl: http://www.usctrojans.com/blog/2009/11/saying-theres-a-chance.html
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