Final ACC Bubble Watch

IN: UNC, Duke

OUT (would need the automatic bid): Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, Boston College

ALMOST IN:
Clemson (20-7, 9-5, RPI: 19, SOS: 30) - The Tigers are probably already in with a very impressive resume. However, I think they need one more win to officially be a lock. If they were to lose at GT and vs. VT, they could finish in a tie for 4th in the ACC at 9-7. A subsequent loss to the #12 seed in the first or second round of the ACC tournament could be very damaging. That scenario isn't as ridiculous as you might think.

Miami (19-8, 7-7, RPI: 26, SOS: 25) - The Canes could lose out and be on the bubble, but finishing at .500 in league play would give a nice warm, fuzzy feeling. Tonight's game at home vs BC should provide that feeling. On the other hand, an 0-3 finish like the one described for Clemson would not be good.


LOTS OF WORK LEFT:
Maryland (18-12, 8-7, RPI: 63, SOS: 14) - The Terps are in a world of hurt after the loss to Clemson, but they're still in the tourney in the latest Bracketology. Joe Lunardi and I agree that they're still barely ahead of the Hokies as well, on the weakness of the Hokies' non-conference efforts. At Virginia is a must win on Sunday. The Terps have no shot at a bye with their 0-4 record against VT, Clemson, and Miami, so they will face the #11 or #12 seed in the first round of the tournament (also a must win). I believe a subsequent victory over VT, Clemson or Miami in the quarters would put the Terps decisively in. Anything less is quite dicey.

Virginia Tech (18-11, 9-6, RPI: 54, SOS: 52) - The Hokies' problem is that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile, though Lunardi has them as the last team in right now. They are 0-5 against the RPI top 50, and only have 5 wins over the top 100 (Maryland x2, GT, Wake, FSU). Offsetting those wins are losses to Penn St., ODU, and Richmond. There was no impressive non-conference win, you choose the best one from UNC-Asheville, UNC-Greensboro, and St. John's. To get in, VT really needs to beat Clemson on the road this weekend. That would give them the 3rd seed in the ACC, as well as a win over a top 50 team. I think a win over the #6 or #11 seed would then put them in for sure. If they lose to Clemson, it might take two wins in the tournament, so getting the bye at #4 (depending on Miami's record) might actually be a disadvantage.

Florida State (17-13, 6-9, RPI: 65, SOS: 18) - The Seminoles have been out of the picture for a while after a 3-8 start in conference. However, a closer examination shows that they had to play UNC, Clemson, and Miami twice each. Winning at UNC yesterday (or the OT game at home against UNC) would have been huge, but the Noles still have a shot. A win over Miami would give them the season sweep of the Canes. If the Noles can follow it up with at least two, maybe three wins, to make the ACC Semis or Finals, I think they sneak in through a weak bubble crowd. That of course requires a victory over Duke or UNC in the quarters.