The Chicago Bulls obviously got lucky claiming the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, but one would have to think the Heat will get a pretty good player at #2 as well. Right? Recent history says otherwise.
In the drafts after 1995, only one 2nd overall pick in the NBA Draft has made it to an All-Star game (Steve Francis). In that time, 7 #1 picks have made the All-Star game, as have 5 #3's, 4 #4's, and 3 #5's. One would expect the #1's to be the best and in general they have been, including Dwight Howard, Lebron, Yao, AI, and Tim Duncan. But by draft order, the 2nd picks should be better than the 3rd or 4th. Consider these All-Stars drafted at either 3rd or 4th from 1996-2005: Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Chauncey Billups, Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis and Stephon Marbury. This is not to say that all the 2nd picks have been complete busts, but the star power has not been there. Will anyone ever be able to explain the choice of Darko Milicic at #2 when Carmelo, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade were still on the board??
Thanks, ESPN, but I don't think we needed to know Darko.The NFL has actually exhibited a very similar trend. Of the draft classes from 1996-2005, the only 2nd picks that became one of the best at their position are Donovan McNabb and Julius Peppers. A few others had decent careers like Kevin Hardy and Lavar Arrington, and others may yet, like Ronnie Brown. However, look at the success of the #1 picks: Keyshawn, Orlando Pace, Peyton, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, and Eli Manning. What's worse is considering the players who were ranked highly but passed on at #2: Jonathan Ogden (4th, 1996), Shawn Springs (3rd, 1997), Charles Woodson (4th, 1998), and LaDainan Tomlinson (5th, 2001), to name a few. The 3rd picks from the last three drafts have all made the Pro Bowl already, while not a single 2nd pick has (including Reggie Bush). The 2004 class is a perfect example, where Robert Gallery was taken 2nd, between Eli, Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers, and Sean Taylor. Maybe we should name the 2nd pick The Ryan Leaf Selection, because that's how it always seems to turn out.
So is there any explanation for this insanity? The #2 pick seems to be littered with college stars whose game didn't work out as well at the pro level. Examples include Keith van Horn, Marcus Camby, Jay Williams, Emeka Okafor, and Marvin Williams. The teams wanted a safer pick where the player had already demonstrated a lot of talent. Other failed picks were young guys that didn't develop to their full potential, like Stromile Swift and Tyson Chandler. Maybe the media hype built some of these guys up too much. It's hard to blame the team strategies because over such a long period, many different strategies should have been tried, along with a variety of team needs and draft availability.
#2, OJ? Are you sure that's when you want to be picked?So the Heat will have their choice of (most likely) two of Beasley, Rose, and Mayo. Will they manage to find a bust in that group? Will they take a shot on this year's Darko? Or maybe they'll buck the trend and find the next MJ. Time will tell, but history's not on their side.
5 Responses:
It is really interesting to see how often #3 ends up better than #2. I can't really think of a good explanation, other than coincidence. The fact that it occurs in football and basketball seems to point away from mere chance being the cause.
Can we get a ful list of the recent #2s or what?
Durant is okay, isn't he? So far he's better than Oden.
For the drafts 1996-2005, the #2's were Marvin Williams, Emeka Okafor, Darko Milicic, Jay Williams, Tyson Chandler, Stromile Swift, Steve Francis, Mike Bibby, Keith Van Horn, and Marcus Camby.
The last two years, which are too recent to know the full potential of the players, are Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge. Both of them could be great, but it's hard to say after 3 combined years in the NBA.
For the NFL, see the all-time list of 2nd picks here.
from 1996-present:
LB Kevin Hardy (JAX, Illini)
DT Darrell Russell (OAK, USC)
QB Ryan Leaf (SD, Wazzu)
QB Donovan McNabb (PHI, 'Cuse)
LB LaVar Arrington (WAS, Penn St.)
OT Leonard Davis (ARI, Texas)
DE Julius Peppers (CAR, UNC)
WR Charlie Rogers (DET, Mich. St.)
OT Robert Gallery (OAK, Iowa)
RB Ronnie Brown (MIA, Auburn)
RB Reggie Bush (NO, USC)
WR Calvin Johnson (DET, Ga. Tech)
DE Chris Long (STL, Virginia)
As bad as that Darko pick was not a lot of people were questioning it at the time (for whatever reason). But the mere fact that Joe D turned that Darko pick into Rodney Stuckey makes him a genious.
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