Week 1 NFL Picks

Each week we are each going to pick five NFL games against the spread. It will soon become apparent that only my advice and Brien’s advice are worth anything. The odds are taken from Sheridan's Odds in USA Today and are current as of post time.

Jeremy

Jeremy sends his regards. He’s spending his honeymoon searching for Natalee Holloway.

I have always been shitty picking against the spread, and to prove just how crappy I am, I will be picking against a Magic 8 Ball for the duration of the season. You'll see that after each of my picks, the Magic 8 Ball will make a pick. The question phrased to the Magic 8 Ball is "Will the [fill in home team] beat the spread?"

WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami
Jeremy’s Pick: Gotta like the ‘Skins in this one. Miami’s D is impressive, but no better than what the ‘Skins faced in the preseason (Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh). This will be the first time that Jason Campbell can open up the playbook with Portis being used to his full capabilities. I expect a low-scoring game, but I expect the ‘Skins to pull it out. I hope for Cam Cameron’s sake that Ted Ginn, Jr. proves that he was worth that #9 overall pick. Maybe he’ll break a nice 15-yard punt return. Redskins -3.

Magic 8 Ball Pick: “Don’t count on it.” Dolphins +3.

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over New Orleans
Jeremy’s Pick: I’m taking the Colts. For as much as we’ve heard about the Colts losing talent on their offensive line, I’ve been extremely impressed by Manning in the preseason. He hasn’t lost any of his receivers, but Joseph Addai is a huge question mark in my mind (although Yahoo! Fantasy Football seems to think he’s better than LaDainian Tomlinson based upon how they project points). Colts at home are very difficult to beat and I don’t see the Saints coming out of the gate Week 1 and beating the Colts on the day when the Colts get their rings. Not to mention that if Indy wins, which I think they will, they rarely win a game that comes down to a field goal difference. Colts -6.

Magic 8 Ball Pick: “Ask again” followed by “My answer is no.” Saints +6.

HOUSTON (-3) over Kansas City
Jeremy’s Pick: I love the show Hard Knocks. Not just because it’s a great view for those of us couch slouches (sorry Norman Chad) into the lives of NFL players. Not just because we get to see former Redskin #1 pick waste Rod Gardner pout when he gets cut. But because we get to see just how much the Chiefs are going to totally suck this year, no matter how many thousands of yards LJ puts up. Texans -3.

Magic 8 Ball Pick: “Signs point to yes.” Texans -3.

New York Giants (+5.5) over DALLAS
Jeremy’s Pick: Wade Phillips. Tony Romo. Marion Barber III. Cowboys would have to win by six points or more to cover. Yup, that about settles it. Giants +5.5.

Magic 8 Ball Pick: “Concentrate and ask again” followed by “My answer is no.” Giants +5.5.

Detroit (+2) over OAKLAND
Jeremy’s Pick: Wow. I cannot believe that the Lions are actually dawgs against the Raiders. I can’t believe anyone is a dawg against the Raiders. I know that the are playing in Oakland. But this is Jon Kitna, who is a serviceable QB, with Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. Versus Daunte Culpepper and… some other guys? Thanks, Vegas! Detroit +2.

Magic 8 Ball Pick: “Don’t count on it.” Detroit +2.

Brien

INDY (-6) over New Orleans
Don't underestimate the emotional high that the entire city of Indianapolis will be on when they raise that Super Bowl banner.

Philly (-3) over GREEN BAY
The WTF line of the week.

Atlanta (+3) over MINNESOTA
Losing Mike Vick won't hurt the Falcon's that much. The Vikings still have to start Tavaris Jackson.

Detroit (+2) over OAKLAND
The drama in Oakland is just too much, and Detroit has too much talent.

Baltimore (+2.5) over CINCINNATI
You'll look back at this line in week 17 and wonder what people were thinking.

J-Red

Brien really loves those road dogs. Here are mine:

Detroit (+2) over OAKLAND - Detroit is going to win 7+ games this year. That's disturbing enough, but not as disturbing as a Raiders team that may rely on Ronald Curry and Lamont Jordan for offensive production. Am I the only person who sees that Daunte Culpepper is one bad hit away from paralysis?

Atlanta (+3) over MINNESOTA - Tavaris Jackson likely sucks. Chester Taylor can’t carry the team. Atlanta has a LOT to play for given the Mike Vick situation. Atlanta might win this game 30-3 and never win another game this year. As sure as you were that the Saints would beat Atlanta at the Superdome re-opener, I'm that sure Atlanta wins this week.

SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay - Tampa might play three quarterbacks in this game. Plus, they didn’t open well last year, getting trounced by the Ravens. This time they have to travel cross country. I don’t see this going well. Seattle isn’t what they were, but they’re still probably good enough to win by 10 in this game.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Chicago - Haha. Thank you Vegas. The Bears don't win 9 this year.

DALLAS (-5.5) over NY Giants - Romo has been positively itching to make up for "the snap". I bet he does.

Russell

Atlanta (+3) over MINNESOTA - Tarvaris who? Atlanta D will dominate an ugly game. Take the under.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CLEVELAND - Are you kidding? This game will be a blowout.

Denver (-3) over BUFFALO - The Buffalo defense won't even know what hit them, and Champ will shut down Lee Evans. Take the over, Denver might get there even if Buffalo doesn't score.

Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON - This line is really ridiculous. Matt Schaub has never won a game, and he's never been hit as many times as he will be in this game. They didn't replace the O line as well as David Carr.

Philly (-3) over GREEN BAY - Favre is good, but there's just not enough around him to beat the hated Eggles.

Russell also throws in these NCAA gems:

West Virginia (-23) over MARSHALL - Marshall already lost by that much to Miami and WVA's a little better.

MICHIGAN (-8) over Oregon - I know Oregon's good, but there's too much pride at Michigan. J-Red’s note: Russell finally picked a home team.

LSU (-12) over Virginia Tech - Geaux Tigers! J-Red’s note: As a Tulane alumnus (like Russell's father), I say eat shit and die.

Alabama (-3) over VANDERBILT - Nick Saban's return to SEC play will not be spoiled by a game Vandy team.

Nebraska (-7) over WAKE FOREST - Skinner's shoulder injury and Keller's arm make the difference.

SUMMARY AND SEASON-TO-DATE

Brien (0-0-0)
Jeremy (0-0-0)
J-Red (0-0-0)
Magic 8 Ball (0-0-0)
Russell (0-0-0)

(Bold means consensus. Italics mean dissention)

Brien - ATL, BAL, DET, IND, PHI
Jeremy - DET, HOU, IND, NYG, WAS
J-Red - ATL, DAL, DET, SD, SEA
Magic 8 Ball - DET, HOU, MIA, NO, NYG
Russell - ATL, DEN, KC, PHI, PIT