IN: UNC, Duke
PROBABLY IN:
Clemson (18-7, 7-5, RPI: 25, SOS: 27) - The Tigers need 2 more wins to feel good, but 1 would probably suffice. A victory over Miami or Maryland next week would move them into lock land. All four remaining games are winnable.
Miami FL (17-7, 5-6, RPI: 28, SOS: 33) - A victory over Duke to extend the winning streak to 3 bolstered their already strong computer numbers. 8-8 in conference is the number I've been quoting for a while, and I still think that's necessary. Virginia and BC at home should be W's, and that just leaves one win from the other three games: Maryland, at Clemson, at FSU.
LOTS OF WORK LEFT:
Maryland (17-10, 7-5, RPI: 62, SOS: 22) - The debilitating, disappointing debacle yesterday at Comcast was extremely costly. Now the Terps really need to win 3 of the last 4 (at Miami, at Wake Forest, Clemson, at Virginia). Look at those games again and tell me the VT loss wasn't huge. Miami and Wake both just beat Duke, providing confidence even though we play a very different style. Clemson is the third best team in the league, and while Virginia's last in the ACC standings, don't underestimate how hard it will be to win in Charlottesville on Senior Day for Sean Singletary. The Terps are capable of winning all 4 and of losing all 4.
Wake Forest (16-8, 6-5, RPI: 64, SOS: 93) - I had the Deacons out last week, and they're still really close to needing to win out. Their non-conference SOS is 264 and they only have two road wins all year. #27 BYU is the only non-conference win in the top 150. After a likely loss at UNC, Wake has Maryland and NC St. at home and the two Tech's on the road, all winnable. If they do finish 4-1, they would be 10-6 in the ACC and winners of 7 of their last 8. That would probably be a third place finish in the ACC, and might be enough to overcome a soft schedule.
NEED TO WIN OUT (and probably win at least their first round game in the ACC tournament): Florida State (15-12, 4-8), North Carolina State (15-11, 4-8), Boston College (13-11, 4-7), Virginia Tech (15-11, 6-6)
OUT: Virginia, Georgia Tech
February 21, 2008
ACC Bubble Watch
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2 Responses:
Maryland took a huge hit yesterday. As other commentators have said, Maryland only has games that can hurt RPI from here on out and none that can help it (save Clemson). The VT loss is going to sting, and the two Duke losses are looking worse by the day.
A win at Miami would help our RPI. I agree the games at Wake and UVA are just bad news, victories are expected and losses devastating.
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