NFL Draft Makes for Strange Bedfellows

The NFL Draft is this weekend, and the draft order has presented some interesting trading situations that could pair uncommon allies.

1) Oakland and Kansas City - These two teams are old school AFC West opponents who couldn't possibly have a more different ownership style. The Chiefs ownership, the descendants of Lamar Hunt, is a staple of the AFL/NFL old guard. The Raiders are owned by, well, Al Davis. Al Davis is an adjective at this point, so no further description is necessary.

Oakland picks 4th and the Chiefs pick 5th thanks to the three-way Falcons-Raiders-Chiefs tiebreaker coin flips. Those two teams don't actually have the same needs, but if Al Davis is temporarily lucid, he can pretend they do. By feigning interest in the Chiefs potential pick, the Raiders can extract at least a 6th rounder and possibly a 5th to swap spots.

Will it happen? - Probably not. The key to whether a trade will take place between neighboring teams lies in the quality of players up to that point in the draft. There are seven players who are generally considered to be the consensus best picks: the two Longs, McFadden, Dorsey, Matt Ryan, Gholston, Sedrick Ellis. This high in the round, Al Davis does not have enough leverage to really scare Kansas City, unless he obtains information that Peterson and Herm Edwards are really dead set on one of the players. The Raiders will try hard, assuming they aren't enamored with one player themselves, because trading down to five and then again farther down the list is their best case scenario.

2) New York Jets and New England - Sparks flew out of my computer screen when I typed those two teams. Thanks to New England's trade with San Francisco, they have the 7th pick despite Spygate. The Jets sit at 6th due to five years of organizational incompetence (after a pretty good stretch of drafts). As one could read above, the top tier of this draft is only 6-10 players deep depending on who you ask, with a pretty steep drop-off after that. Since the same teams keep losing, most of the top teams, save Atlanta, have quarterback investments, so there isn't the usual incentive to reach out of desperation.

The Jets problems can be analogized to those of the City of New Orleans - it's best just to pick one thing and work really hard on it. Luckily for GM Mike Tannenbaum and coach Eric Mangini, their focus can be directed by the team picking after them. The Jets know that the Pats need defensive line help. They also know, or should know, that Belichick and Pioli would rather have Gholston than Sedrick Ellis. The Jets would also be well-served by Gholston. They might be able to leverage an extra pick out of the Pats to let them pay a bigger cap number and guarantee themselves the pick they want.

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Will it happen? - I think so. Maybe people, including Peter King, believe that the Patriots will talk to the Chiefs rather than have to deal with the Jets. I don't see that happening, because the Chiefs, who need everything, really don't want to pick behind the Jets, who need everything. I think New England would have to overpay to make that move, in draft picks and salary cap. If we've learned anything from the Patriots (other than the furor that can be created by bootleg video), it's that they'll deal with some odious characters if it means they have a better team. I think they'd rather throw a 5th or 6th to the Jets than something to the Chiefs.

3) Baltimore and Cincinnati/The Rest of the World - This makes more sense if you understand that the City of Baltimore and its sports fans fully believe the entire world is out to get them. That concept makes sense if you hang out in any area of Baltimore that was recently renovated by gentrification. The Ravens sit at 8th, placing them precisely where no one wants to be this year. As I wrote twice before, there is a big falling off point after the 7th best player.

But, as I also wrote before, the teams in the top of the draft seem to always be there for a reason. SOMEONE will drop. I don't know who. Maybe McFadden, maybe Gholston, but every year some team makes a confusing pick that leaves the Ravens looking at their hands wondering "How the hell did this happen again?". The main difference is that this year the Ravens have pressing enough needs that they might not just take this year's Terrell Suggs without thinking twice. That could pay huge dividends, and the Ravens will trade with any and all comers.

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This year is especially appetizing for the Ravens as the Bengals pick 9th. The Bengals desperately need a DL and either Gholston or Sedrick Ellis should be dangling just out of the Bengals' reach when the Ravens pick. Marvin Lewis has benefitted (and its become increasingly obvious just how much he benefitted) from the Ravens' "best-available" draft philosophy. He can't assume the Ravens will overpay for a CB when a properly valued DL is sitting patiently in the green room.

Will it happen? - Probably. The only player who could drop and make the Ravens salivate is Matt Ryan. Otherwise they need a CB, and there is no CB in this draft worth 8th pick money. If McFadden drops the Ravens will kindly thank Mr. Jerry Jones for his pick and be on their way down the board. Remember, Ozzie Newsome is like a wealthy retired person who still eats bargain meals at Denny's. You could ask him why someone with so much money would eat at Denny's. He would probably respond "I'm rich because I eat at Denny's even though I can afford better. You're poor because you eat at Ruth's Chris even though you can't afford it." There are a lot of GMs in the league who just can't pass up a good expensive steak. Ideally the Ravens would swap down to 9th with the Bengals and drop further if multiple attractive players are still on the board.

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bhblahblah Note: Above image will not be comprehended by Daniel Snyder.

4) Washington and Dallas - The Redskins and Cowboys pick 21st and 22nd, so there might be temptation for the Cowboys.....I'm kidding. It's virtually guaranteed that the Cowboys won't be at 22nd. Jerry couldn't wait that long. On the off chance he is still sitting there, why would he feel compelled to jump ahead of the Redskins? The three guarantees in life are death, taxes, incompetent or unlucky Redskins draft picks.

Just as an aside, go check out the Redskins' cap situation going into 2008. Not horrible, right? Remember Sean Taylor? The Skins got totally bailed out by that tragedy. Any time you catch yourself thinking that Snyder et al have turned the franchise management corner, dig a little deeper.

5) ESPN and the NFL Network - The NFL Network wants what ESPN had - a monopoly on NFL Draft coverage. Unfortunately for the NFL, they gave ESPN rights to co-broadcast the draft before they realized just how much leverage they'd need to force Comcast and other cable providers to provide the channel in its standard package. They won't make that mistake again when the Monday Night Football deal is up for re-negotiation. Enjoy Mel Kiper while you have him.

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One more thing: If you want to look really smart in three years, just grade the Ravens and Steelers draft an A (unless the Ravens pick a QB or WR). The player will be in the Pro Bowl by then and you can feel comfortable telling people that you told them so. Or go get that grad degree you keep talking about. Seriously, dude, we're sick of hearing it.