ACC Bubble Watch

In the latest version of Lunardi's Bracketology, only 4 ACC teams are in the tourney, and after Miami's loss at Wake, that's probably now 3. This is a concerning state of affairs for the conference that prides itself as one of the best (usually the best) in the nation. Here's the first edition of bubble watch.

All rankings are RPI, as given by kenpom.

IN: #3 UNC, #5 Duke
OUT: #113 Virginia (11-8, 1-5) - Singletary and their entire front line are hurt.

That leaves 9 teams on the bubble. Lunardi has Clemson in, Miami last four in, BC and FSU next four out.

#30 Clemson (14-5, 3-3) - Recently ranked, the Tigers have no bad losses, but also very few good wins. The three conference losses are UNC, Duke, and Miami.
Needs: 8-8 ACC
Projection: 9-7 ACC, IN.


#39 Miami (14-5, 2-4) - The Canes depend very heavily on Jack McClinton, and any team that's able to defend him has a good chance. Their game at BC exposed their shooting problems, as they started both halves 0-10 or worse from the field. Already 2-4 in conference, they still have 2 games with Duke and at Clemson.
Needs: 8-8 ACC
Projection: 7-9 ACC, IN with a win in the ACC tournament, OUT otherwise.

#50 NC State (13-6, 2-3) - Horrible losses to New Orleans and ECU will make their case tougher, and general inconsistency has plagued their season. They need some big wins in conference to bolster their resume.
Needs: 9-7 ACC
Projection: 7-9 ACC, OUT.

#57 Georgia Tech (10-9, 3-3) - A brutal out-of-conference schedule included losses to Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Kansas, but that should not obscure the losses to Winthrop, UNC Greensboro, and Georgia. The recent 3 game winning streak has people talking, but their best win was Notre Dame on a neutral court in November. The schedule doesn't get any easier with Clemson twice, at Duke, and at UConn.
Needs: 11-5 ACC
Projection: 7-9 ACC, OUT.

#61 Wake Forest (13-6, 3-3) - An undermanned club that's overperforming right now, BYU is the only legit out-of-conference win. They will be physically overwhelmed down the stretch.
Needs: 10-6 ACC
Projection: 6-10 ACC, OUT.

#66 Virginia Tech (13-8, 4-3) - When UNC Asheville and UNC Greensboro are by far your best non-conference wins, you know you're in trouble. Losses to ODU and Penn St. don't help either. However, they've been winning the close ones lately, and the schedule down the stretch is pretty friendly.
Needs: 11-5 ACC
Projection: 9-7 ACC, OUT.

#75 Florida State (13-9, 2-5) - Things are falling apart in Tallahassee after a decent start. Their win over Florida looks great right now, but nothing else does. A 2-5 start in conference does not bode with UNC twice and Miami twice (and three other teams to whom they've already lost) remaining on the schedule.
Needs: 9-7 ACC
Projection: 6-10 ACC, OUT.

#78 Maryland (13-8, 3-3) - A big road win over UNC offsets a bad home loss to American, but the Terps need to close strong to earn a berth. The best non-conference win was on the road at #74 Charlotte, but the Terps have looked better lately and won 3 of their last 4. The remaining teams aren't the strongest, but 6 of the last 10 are on the road.
Needs: 10-6 ACC
Projection: 10-6 ACC, IN. (Wins at GT, at UVA, and at Wake, plus all home games)

#85 Boston College (12-6, 3-2) - Not as bad as this ranking appears, the Eagles only had one bad non-conference loss (Robert Morris). Losses to Kansas, UMass, and Providence aren't embarrassing, and a victory over URI is looking decent. The last two games, though, have been bad losses to VT and UVa. With three very tough road games in the next four (at Duke, UNC and Clemson), BC will have to be very resilient.
Needs: 10-6 ACC
Projection: 8-8 ACC, OUT.

So I have 4 in, Miami squarely on the bubble, and everyone else out. A tough year for the ACC.