Santana to Mets: A Desperate Team Willing to Take Desperate Measures

The Mets were embarrassed down the stretch last year during their historic collapse. As they look toward the 2008 season, the future really needs to be now for the Mets. Pedro Martinez and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez have both been dominant pitchers and among the best in the league, but both are old and injury-prone. El Duque's 60 mph curveball isn't as brutal when the fastball's only mid-80's. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey are all passable starters, but not top-notch. They really needed a great #1 to anchor their rotation, and that's what they got. Santana will be outstanding in the NL, especially this year when most NL batters haven't had very many ABs against him.

However, the pitching staff isn't what made this deal so necessary for the Mets. It's all the aging stars. To go with Pedro and El Duque at 36 and 41, Carlos Delgado is 35 and starting to pass his prime. Moises Alou is 41 and slowing down. Carlos Beltran is 30, and there's really no one else in the Mets outfield on the current roster. Carlos Gomez (22) and Lastings Milledge are gone via trades. Ryan Church, Marlon Anderson, and Endy Chavez (great catch, not much else) aren't going to carry the team. Brian Schneider, newly acquired from the Nats, is an aging mediocre catcher. As a result, the Mets will have four vacancies among the position players in the next couple years (LF, RF, 1B, and C), along with the loss of their #2 and #3 starting pitchers. Billy Wagner is 36, and don't tell me Jorge Julio will take over seamlessly. Their farm system was just raided by the Twins, and even though they protected their best prospect, losing 4 of the top 7 is pretty crippling.

The Mets are dangerously close to becoming the Yankees, overspending for free agents and emptying the farm system. If it doesn't work out shortly, they will pay for a few years. They'll never be terrible because the core will be good, but lots of holes will open up shortly.

The real question is whether they can even win the division. The Phillies beat them last year, and have a young team anchored by Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Hamels. The Braves have a better top 3 of their rotation (even after the Mets get Santana), with Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine (all of whom are also aging, but not as bad as Pedro). Santana does not make the NL East a cakewalk for the Mets.

Can Reyes and Wright, with Santana's help, carry the Mets to the top of the NL East and beyond? They probably have two years until it's their team alone.