Super Bowl Prop Bet Picks

The best part about gambling on the Super Bowl is moving beyond the point spread, money line, and over/under and into exotic prop bets. Sure, you can bet on most of these things for any game all year, but the Super Bowl is the one time most bettors are willing to put in the effort to analyze the lines.

Also, there's always the opportunity for a huge payoff. Last year I had Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game at 20/1.

On to the picks (all lines from Bodoglife.com):

Eli Manning's Pass Attempts Over 34.5 (-120)
Manning's pass numbers have been all over the place this season, as low as 12 (against Dallas in the playoffs) and as high as 52 (against Washington). But it's also important to look at what other QBs have done against New England. In the Patriots' last 6 games, the opposing quarterback has attempted at least 30 passes. The last QB to attempt fewer than 30 was Kyle Boller in the game with the Brian Billick clenched asshole 4th quarter. If you (like me) think there's a decent chance the Patriots run away with this game, Eli will be throwing a lot of passes in the second half. Go with the over.

Eli Manning's Total Passing Yards Under 225 (-120)
That's a lot of passing yards. In the Super Bowl last year, Peyton only threw for 247 in an MVP performance. Tom Brady has thrown for 236, 354 and 145 in his Super Bowl victories. Unless you're expecting a Giants win and Eli as the MVP (and in that case, you can get better odds than this bet), take the under.

Plaxico Burress Total Pass Receptions Under 5 (-115)
After watching Plax absolutely destroy the Packers, I fully expected to take the over on this one. Then I looked at his reception numbers for the season. There have been very few games where he's had more than 5 receptions, and none of them were against teams with a secondary as good as New England's

Will a Jeff Feagles Punt Result in a Touchback? No (-260)
Brace yourself, there's some math involved with this one. Feagles has had 86 punts this season, with only 6 touchbacks. That means he gets a touchback only 7% of the time. Assuming he has 4 punts in the Super Bowl, there's a 74% chance he won't have a touchback. Even at -260, that makes it a good bet. If he has more punts than that, the odds obviously go down.

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards Under 300.5 (-125)
As we saw with Eli, Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks don't often throw for 300 yards.

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards on First TD Pass Over 9.5 (-120)
To take the under on this one, you have to assume that his first TD pass will come in a goal-to-go situation. Even the Patriots run the ball that close to the end zone.

Will a Chris Hanson Punt Result in a Touchback? No (-200)
Hanson has 6 touchbacks in 45 punts, or 13% of the time. If he has his average number of 2.6 punts in a game (yeah, I know), that means there's a 75% chance he doesn't have a touchback.


Stupid lines you shouldn't bet on:

Total number of Pass Interceptions by both teams 0 (2/1)
This is essentially the same thing as selecting "No Pass interception recorded in the game" on the "Player to record the first pass interception" line. But for some reason, that line is 6/1. So if you don't think there's going to be an interception thrown in the game, bet on the "Player to record the first pass interception" not the "Total number of pass interceptions by both teams."