Everyone knows the ACC is a better conference than the Big 10, as confirmed by the ACC's dominance of the Challenge. So you might ask yourself, why will the Big 10 get more berths to the NCAA tournament this year than the ACC?
It's not hard to understand Joe Lunardi having 8 Big East teams in the tournament when the conference has 10 teams in the RPI top 51. But the Big 10 is projected to have 5 teams in right now, and the announcers last night were making noise about Minnesota having the chance to creep onto the bubble.
The Big 10 currently has 5 teams outside the RPI top 100: #110 Illinois, #147 Iowa, #154 Penn State, #172 Michigan, and #206 Northwestern. These 5 teams are a combined 8-34 in conference play, with one combined win over a team other than these 5 in conference. Only one of these 5 teams is at .500 (Penn St.), and three have a win over a RPI top 100 opponent (total of 5). Iowa's victory over Michigan State was the only victory by any of the 5 over a top 50 team. Excluding games played against each other, they are 1-27 in conference, providing 27 pretty easy wins for the top 6 teams in the Big 10.
Michigan is 5-16 in Beilein's first year, without Horton and friends.By comparison, the ACC has one team outside the top 100: #111 Virginia. Virginia has a victory over a top 50 team and a top 100 team, and was 10-3 prior to conference play. Their 11-8 record is better than any of the bottom teams in the Big 10. Every team in the ACC is over .500, and the only team flirting with it is #61 Georgia Tech (SOS: 7).
So what does all this mean? The top 5 teams in the Big 10 have a total of 33 wins (24 over the bottom 5, 4 over Minnesota), meaning that the top 5 have only played each other FIVE times so far. Expect some attrition later in the season, as these 7-1 records will be deflated. Minnesota can go 9-9 in conference without beating one of the top five, and they should have no chance of making the tournament at 19-11. Purdue is (16-5, 7-1) with a total of 3 wins over top 100 teams, and can finish 21-10 without beating another. The committee needs to seriously consider the weakness in these schedules.
Meanwhile, the ACC is full of teams good enough to be in the RPI top 100, but not good enough to consistently beat the other ACC teams in the top 100. The resulting logjam near .500 will keep many of these teams out, even though they all would have Purdue's record (or close) if they played in the Big 10. All 9 bubble teams in the ACC are capable of finishing between 10-6 and 6-10 in conference, but only 1 or 2 will make the tournament, while teams like Purdue will receive an unquestioned spot.
You have to wonder what it would be like to have a Northwestern or a Michigan in the ACC, but then it wouldn't be the best conference in America every year.
7 Responses:
Just so you know, the three guys in that picture are three of Michigan's 4 leading scorers last year, none of which are on this team. At least get a picture of this year's squad.
This one is much better.
I wanted a picture showing the frustration of the program. I'm open to changing it (I knew it was last year), but NIT dynasty isn't appropriate since the NIT won't even take the Wolverines this year.
I changed the caption.
Besides, no one on this squad deserves to have their picture taken.
Let's hope all Michigan's stolen WVU coaches perform equally.
As a Maryland fan, how difficult is it to see Duke be in the top 5 year, after year, after year?
Not to mention a #1 seed 90% of the time in the tourney?
Maryland had two good years, and the rest is mediocrity within the ACC. You're at the same level as N.C. State and UVA, if not lower. How pitiful.
I mean, you obviously know Duke is really, really good every single year. They are the best!!
HHHHHHIIIIIIIIIMMMMMMMYYYYYY!!!!!!
It's not that difficult. Having Duke and UNC in the conference is a good measuring stick for figuring out how good we really are each year. We don't have the same recruiting pipeline and media-granted advantages that Duke has.
Look at Wake recently. You can win games in the ACC and still not be an elite team if you can't knock off UNC and Duke. We do that, and we won a national championship this decade.
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