Week 9 NFL Against the Spread Picks

Now that two humans are at or above .500, the race to Week 17 has some drama. We know a little bit about all the teams now, but so does Vegas. We should start seeing more pushes and more backdoor covers now. On to the picks!

Sheridan's Odds used, current as of post time

Jeremy and Magic 8 Ball (19-16-5 and 22-13-5)

It's November and I'm still above .500. If December comes around and I still have a winning record, I'm opting out of my contract with the law firm and going to Vegas. Just kidding Mr. Anonymous Supervising Partner who I told about this blog!!! Anyway, on to the picks:

Washington (-3.5) over JETS - I'm picking this one purely with my heart instead of my head because my head knows if the 'Skins lose this game, their season is as dead as the Ravens'.

Green Bay (+2) over KANSAS CITY - I think the Pack is slightly overrated, but with a line like this, I think the Chiefs are being VERY overrated by Vegas.

Baltimore (+8.5) over PITTSBURGH - The Steelers win, but by a touchdown or less.

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Arizona - Jeff Garcia is very quietly having a huge season and no reason why the Cards D will put a stop to it.

And finally, because J-Red is making us pick it, but really I couldn't care less about this game because the one that will really count will be their inevitable matchup in January and I have no plans to watch this game...

New England (-4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS - Listen, if you're a Skins fan, and you witnessed the carnage last week, it doesn't matter where the game is being played or who the defending champs are... you simply do not pick against New England right now.

Magic 8 Ball Picks:
NEW YORK JETS (+3.5) over Washington - "My sources say yes." [Jets beat spread]

KANSAS CITY (-2) over Green Bay - "My sources say yes." [Chiefs beat spread]

Baltimore (+8.5) over PITTSBURGH - "No." [Steelers won't beat spread]

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Arizona - "Yes." [Bucs beat spread]

INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) over New England - "My sources say yes." [Colts beat spread]

(I swear, the Magic 8 Ball was getting shaken well despite having three of the same answer come up. At this point, with its success on the year, would YOU question the 8 Ball???)

J-Red (19-19-2)

I'm feeling good about my evaluation of all the teams through a half-season. No particular theme today. For the record, I am not picking Ravens/Steelers because a) you never have any idea how that game will turn out, b) the Ravens are healthy for the first time this year and c) the Ravens suck in night road games. I'm not picking Skins/Jets because a) Kellen Clemens is a total wild card, b) the Jets and Redskins have a weird relationship when it comes to trading players (Coles/Moss, Pete Kendall, Patrick Ramsey), and c) the Skins are very angry.

DETROIT (-3.5) over Denver - Jay Cutler just isn't the answer, and the Lions are coming into their own with Kitna's solid play and Kevin Jones nearing playing shape. I will continue to ride the Lions and Cowboys.

San Diego (-7) over MINNESOTA - Against Houston, Norv played Martyball to perfection. Minnesota is much better than Houston against the run, but they can't muster points.

Dallas (-3) over PHILADELPHIA - If Romo hadn't just gotten a new contract, I'd have taken this line up to 10. That's the only thing about this game that worries me at all.

TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Carolina - Tennessee just never seems to slip up against mediocre teams. I'd like a half point, but I still feel like this could be a 19-3 cruise control game for the Titans.

New England (-4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS - I'd love for the Colts to win this game, but I just don't see it happening. I suspect Dungy will attempt to control the ball on offense, mostly running with Addai and throwing underneath to backs and Dallas Clark. This will probably keep them in the game for a half, but New England's LBs are just too good against both the run and the short pass. Since I don't see New England having any trouble scoring, it will only take a couple stalled Colts drives for this thing to start getting out of hand in the late third quarter. On the other hand, if Dungy just tells Peyton to do whatever he sees, the Colts could jump out and be in it the whole way.

Brien (19-20-1)

OK, I learned my lesson. New England is an absurd 8-0 against the spread this year. I could have been doing a lot better if I just rode the hot team instead of trying to outsmart myself. That changes this week. I'm taking the Patriots every week from here on out, at least until they fail to cover.

New England (-4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS - Not only are the Patriots the hottest team in football right now, I think this game means more to them than it does to the Colts. The Patriots have shown through the first half of the season that they care about individual statistics, margin of victory, going undefeated, and looking like the most dominant team in the NFL. The Colts seem to only care about one thing: winning the Super Bowl again. So to the Colts this is just another regular season game against a particularly tough opponent. For the Patriots, it's a chance to be the top sports story for another week.

Baltimore (+8.5) over PITTSBURGH - This game brings up one of my favorite college sports betting rules: always take the underdog in rivalry games. Vegas always sets the spread too wide and discounts the extra emotion in these games. The Ravens are playing for their season in this game, against their rivals, on Monday night. They'll be fired up, and that should at least let them keep it close.

Green Bay (+2) over KANSAS CITY - I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but seriously? The Packers are a far better team. KC has won 5 straight against the packers, dating back to 1989, but that's ancient history.

BUFFALO (+1) over Cincinnati - Amazingly, both of these teams only have wins over the Jets and the Ravens. But after watching an undisciplined Bengals team lose at home last week in a game that wasn't as close as the score, I'll take the Bills.

Jacksonville (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS - The Saints have won 3 in a row, but they were all against crappy teams. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are looking like the team you don't want to face in the first round of the playoffs.

Russell (15-24-1)

Wow, I suck. This week brings a lot of WTF lines, but when you're as bad as I am, what is a WTF line? I'll take them all.

Green Bay (+2) over KANSAS CITY - Did someone miss the fact that the Pack is 6-1 and Favre just torched the best CB's in the league?

OAKLAND (-3) over Houston - Texans are really bad against the run.

ATLANTA (-3) over San Francisco - NO beat SF bad at SF, NO barely beat ATL at NO. Now apply deductive logic. Atlanta also had a bye.

Jacksonville (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS - I don't care who starts at QB for the Jags, they will hit you in the mouth repeatedly.

INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) over New England - Let me get this straight. Assuming a 3 point home field advantage, this means the Pats are more than a TD better than the undefeated Super Bowl champs? Ridiculous. If you need more, the Colts are a more balanced team, with a better defense and a much better rushing game. Plus Peyton got over the Belicheck curse last year. This game boils down to the Colts' ability to get pressure on Brady with the front 4 quick enough to prevent deep balls to Moss.

Recap and Standings

Magic 8 (22-13-5) - .613
Jeremy (19-16-5) - .538
J-Red (19-19-2) - .500
Brien (19-20-1) - .488
Russell (15-24-1) - .388

Brien - BAL, BUF, GB, JAX, NE
Jeremy - BAL, GB, NE, TB, WAS
J-Red - DAL, DET, NE, SD, TEN
Russell - ATL, GB, IND, JAX, OAK
Magic 8 - BAL, IND, KC, NYJ, TB